💉 Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals (CYCC): We Called the Dip-Buy—Now Up 56%, More Juice or Squeeze Time?

Stonks
6 days ago
5 min read

Stonks After Dark nailed the CYCC buy at $8.38 on July 16, spotting the insider shift and preclinical wins as a turnaround signal in biotech hell. Now at $13.07, that's ~56% gains for readers who loaded the dip, with the stock ripping on split momentum and liver cancer buzz. Lazar's CEO role and community hype are fueling the fire, but massive losses and macro biotech drag keep bears sniffing. Is this the road to $20 or a pullback trap? Let’s update the play.

📊 Live Snap & Context

Current Price: $13.07
Price @ Original Report: ~$8.38
Change: 🔼 +56% since our call – solid rip, hitting $15 high on July 19.
Intraday Range: $12.80–$13.50, a choppy grind with mid-day peak – bounced around but held gains.
Volume: ~2.8M shares, down from 16M spike but above average – quieter trading, but buyers hanging in.
Insider Activity: Investor David Lazar bought $3.1M in preferred stock (July 2025), became interim CEO; CFO Paul McBarron sold 1,886 shares at $3.315 on Dec 26, 2024 (~$6.25K). Net insider buying YTD; ownership at 2.4% – Lazar's big buy and CEO role showing confidence.
52-Week Range: $3.08–$597.60 (pre-split adjusted), up 324% YTD post-split – year's low to high, massive run from bottom.
Recent News: Preclinical plogosertib data for liver cancer published (July 7); preferred dividend announced (July 7). Lazar's CEO role and $3M placement (June 20). No new filings, but split momentum lingers.

🚀 Recap: We Called the Dip-Buy, You Banked It

Original Call: Buy at $7.50–$8.38 as a dip-buy on insider Lazar, preclinical data, and oversold setup – we spotted the bounce early.
What Happened: Stock ripped to $15, delivering ~79% gains at peak – split and data hype kicked in.
Why It Worked: Lazar's buy, liver cancer buzz, and biotech rotations aligned – turnaround narrative turned into price action.
Stonks Win: Readers who bought the dip are deep green; now let's lock gains and hunt for more.

🔥 What’s Driving the Action

Preclinical Buzz: Plogosertib data for liver cancer subtypes (July 7) sparked optimism in CD38+ tumors – potential game-changer for pipeline.
Insider Shift: Lazar's $3.1M preferred buy and interim CEO role signal turnaround bet, outweighing McBarron’s small sale – new boss buying big, like he's all-in.
Fundamentals Breakdown: Revenue growth N/A (ttm $14K, from preclinical stage), no trends yet – sales tiny, starting from scratch. Gross margins 0% (no revenue), net margins 0.00% on -$8.35M loss – losing money big time. FCF negative -$8.35M (ttm), cash burn on R&D – spending more than making, typical for early biotech.
Valuation vs. Peers: P/E negative (-$4.08 EPS ttm), EV/EBITDA 1.05x (low vs. biotech average 15x like $REGN at 18x or $INCY at 12x). P/S 1436.63x (insane vs. peers 5x–10x), P/B 2.4x (above average 0.8x). Overvalued on P/S for a no-revenue play in a biotech glut – cheap on EV/EBITDA, but high risk in high-rate macro squeezing funding.
Macro Headwinds: Fed rates (5.25–5.50%) hit biotech funding (sector -20% YTD, Nasdaq Biotech Index). Cancer drug market +8% y/y (IQVIA Q2 2025), but oversupply and trial delays cap upside. U.S. healthcare spending +4% y/y (CMS), but China ties expose to trade tensions (Trump tariffs August 1) – U.S. biotech push boosts, but global slowdown hurts.

📉 Technical Breakdown

RSI (14-day): ~62, warming up after dipping to 34 (July 15) – RSI mid-range, room for uptick but watch for pullback if >70.
Stochastic Oscillator: %K at 75, %D at 68 – mid-high, bullish crossover if $13.50 holds – Stochastic mid, hinting at pause or uptick.
MACD: -0.25 (line) vs. -0.18 (signal), bearish crossover narrowing, histogram positive – momentum improving, but watch for fade if peaks.
Bollinger Bands: Price near middle band ($10.50–$15.50), bandwidth contracting – bands tightening, signaling a big move coming, up or down.
Fibonacci Retracement: From July low ($4.55) to high ($19.25), current at 50% retrace ($11.90); 61.8% at $13.50 upside target – Fib levels show bounce or fall spots.
Moving Averages: Price above 20-day SMA ($6.50), 50-day SMA ($7.50), but below 200-day SMA ($10.00) – short-term averages up, long-term down.
Support: $11.90 (Fib 50%), deeper at $10.50 (middle Bollinger) – levels where buyers might step in.
Resistance: $13.50 (Fib 61.8%), $15.00 (psych level) – barriers for bulls to break.
Volume: 2.8M (down from 16M spike), with green bars on ups. OBV stable, A/D line positive – some accumulation, but not explosive.
Chart: Post-split spike faded, but uptrend channel from July low ($4.55) to $13.07 holding. RSI divergence at highs and Bollinger squeeze suggest volatility ahead – bulls need $13.50 break; bears eye $11.90 crack.

Vibe Check: Data and CEO hype lit the fuse, but overbought RSI/Stochastic and negative margins scream caution. Macro biotech drag keeps bears at bay, despite cancer buzz.

👁 Sentiment & Social Pulse

X Chatter: Bulls hype the data: “$CYCC plogosertib liver cancer win = $20+!” (@CryptoGemHunter, 150 likes, July 7). Bears counter: “Split dilution, short city” (@BearMarketBob, 80 likes). Sentiment 60% bullish, up from 55%.
Reddit: r/pennystocks threads call the run "Lazar magic" (200 upvotes on “CYCC +56%, CEO buy?”), r/investing debates losses (150 upvotes). r/wallstreetbets mocks “biotech zombie pump” (100 upvotes).
StockTwits: 65% bullish, posts on “$13.07 bottom, to $20” (@oldarmy1, 50 likes). Bear posts flag losses (40 likes).
Analyst Sentiment: Moderate Buy (2 Buy, 1 Hold); H.C. Wainwright $30 target (July 3); average $30.83 (136% upside from $13.07).
News: Plogosertib data and Lazar's role dominate, with focus on liver cancer subtype. Split and dividend add positive spin, but losses overshadow.

🎯 Updated Trading Playbook

🟢 Long-Hold Play (Insider Bet): Buy at $11.90–$13.07, near current or RSI <40 dip – scoop up when it's cheap or oversold.
Stop Loss: Below $11.90—breaks Fib 50% – bail if it falls under this.
Targets:
- T1: $13.50 (Fib 61.8%) – first ladder up.
- T2: $15.00 (psych level).
- T3: $20.00 if data beats – aim for these ceilings.
Why It Works: Bullish MACD + insider buys + Bollinger squeeze = run potential – up MACD means momentum building.
🔄 Breakout Add-On: Break above $13.50 with volume (>3M shares) – price jumps over key level with lots of trading.
Action: Add 50% to position, move stop to $13.00 – pile on, adjust safety net.
Target: $15.00–$20.00 if Q3 hype beats.
🔻 Short-Reject Play (Fade the Rally): Short at $13.50–$15.00, near resistance – sell when it hits these ceilings.
Stop Loss: Above $15.50—breaks psych level – bail if it goes above here.
Targets: $11.90 (Fib 50%), $10.50 (middle Bollinger), $8.00 if losses widen – aim for these floors.

⚠️ Risk Check

Insider Trap: Lazar's $3.1M buy could ignite a squeeze if sentiment flips – big buyer could turn the tide.
Earnings Miss: Q2 FY2025 (August 12) guides -$0.02 EPS; trial delay or loss spike accelerates drop – bad numbers could tank it.
Biotech Sector Drag: Sector down 20% YTD on funding crunch; cancer drug market +8% y/y but oversupply hurts – industry pain hits hard.
Volatility Spike: Bollinger squeeze and low volume signal big move—down on macro, up on data hype – expect wild swings.
Competition: Rivals like $AMGN or $PFE gain share; regulatory scrutiny caps upside – bigger players stealing lunch.

🖤 The Stonks After Dark Verdict

$CYCC’s a biotech underdog with data hype and Lazar's role sparking a 56% run from $8.38 to $13.07, but net loss -$8.35M ttm, FCF -$8.35M, and revenue $14K spell trouble. Valuation P/B 2.4x (above average 0.8x), EV/EBITDA 1.05x (low vs. $REGN 18x or $INCY 12x), P/S 1436.63x (insane vs. 5-10x peers) in a funding-crunch macro (biotech -20% YTD). Social hype’s moderate, but uptrend channel and bullish MACD scream run. Buy at $11.90–$13.07, stop at $11.90, and aim for $13.50–$20.00. Add above $13.50 if volume confirms. Bears, short at $13.50–$15.00, targeting $11.90–$8.00. Q2 earnings and data are pivotal