🍸 LQR House (YHC): We Nailed the Short—Now What After the Crash?

Stonks After Dark struck gold again—our YHC short call at $10.73 printed massive gains as it cratered to $2.42, handing readers ~77% profits in days. The lawsuit and pivot hype burst the bubble, but with Yerbaé acquisition and crypto buzz lingering, is there a rebound or more pain? Let’s update the play!

📊 Live Snap & Context

• Current Price: $2.42 (closing price on July 18, 2025, at 16:00 GMT) – the stock's end-of-day value after the bloodbath.

• Price @ Original Report: ~$10.73

• Change: 🔻 -77% since our call – massive drop, profits locked for shorts.

• Intraday Range: $2.39–$2.50, a tight grind with no rebound – bounced around but stayed low.

• Volume: ~1.2M shares, down from 3.93B spike but above average – quieter trading, sellers exhausted?

• Insider Activity: CEO Sean Dollinger bought 23,100 shares at $4.60 on December 20, 2024 (~$106K); earlier buys in April 2025. No recent sells reported; ownership at 5.40% – CEO adding, showing confidence.

• 52-Week Range: $1.13–$98.00, down 97% from highs but up 114% from lows – year's low to high, massive drop from peak.

• Recent News: Lawsuit from Kingbird Ventures alleging breach of fiduciary duty (July 16, causing -43% drop); signals strategic shift to digital assets with crypto investor support (July 16). Montauk rum partnership (June 23); third Ontario order (July 3). Yerbaé acquisition in works.

  
  

🔥 What’s Driving the Action

• Lawsuit Rug Pull: Kingbird's suit against CEO Dollinger and board for breach crushed the pivot hype, triggering the 77% crash from $10.73 – legal drama killed the buzz.

• Insider Confidence: Dollinger’s $106K buy at $4.60 signals belief in e-commerce pivot and partnerships – CEO betting on growth.

• Fundamentals Breakdown: Revenue growth up 458% y/y in ttm ($2.45M from $0.44M), from tiny base – sales exploding, but small. Gross margins negative (-630.38%), meaning they lose money on sales after costs – bleeding cash. Net margins -926.78% on -$22.72M loss, worsened from -500% y/y – losing big money. FCF negative -$568.12K (vs. -$400K y/y), cash burn accelerating on marketing – spending more than making.

• Valuation vs. Peers: P/S 0.53 (below beverage average 2x, e.g., CELH 10x, MNST 8x, EAST 0.5x for small caps), EV/EBITDA N/A (negative EBITDA vs. CELH 45x or MNST 25x). Forward P/E negative (-$0.56 EPS est.), undervalued on P/S but losses make it riskier in a flat beverage market (+2% y/y, Statista Q2 2025) – cheap, but risky in high-rate macro.

• Macro Headwinds: Fed rates (5.25–5.50%) hit consumer discretionary (alcohol sales flat y/y, Nielsen Q2 2025). E-commerce growth +8% y/y (U.S. Commerce Dept), but trade tensions and inflation (3.2% CPI June) cap upside – U.S. booze market stable, but online penetration low (5%).

  
  

📉 Technical Breakdown

• RSI (14-day): ~35, oversold after dropping from 85 (July 16) – RSI low means "cheap," rebound potential but weak momentum.

• Stochastic Oscillator: %K at 15, %D at 20 – deep oversold, bullish crossover if $2.50 holds – Stochastic super low, hinting at rebound.

• MACD: -0.08 (line) vs. -0.05 (signal), bearish crossover widening, histogram negative but narrowing – momentum down, but slowing could mean turnaround.

• Bollinger Bands: Price at lower band ($1.50–$4.50), bandwidth contracting post-spike – bands tightening, signaling a big move coming, up or down.

• Fibonacci Retracement: From July high ($11.14) to low ($2.42), current at 0% retrace ($2.42); 38.2% at $5.50 upside target – Fib levels show bounce or fall spots.

• Moving Averages: Price below 20-day SMA ($4.50), 50-day SMA ($4.80), and 200-day SMA ($8.00) – all sloping down. Death cross locked in June – averages are like roadblocks above price, keeping it down.

• Support: $2.39 (recent low), deeper at $1.13 (52-week low) – levels where buyers might step in.

• Resistance: $4.50 (20-day SMA), $4.80 (50-day SMA) – barriers for bulls to break.

• Volume: 1.2M (down from 3.93B), with red bars dominating. OBV declining, A/D line negative – low volume on ups, high on downs means sellers control.

• Chart: Post-parabolic spike, sharp reversal to $2.42 with lower highs. RSI divergence at lows and Bollinger squeeze suggest volatility ahead – bulls need $4.50 break; bears eye $2.39 crack.

  
  

Vibe Check: The pivot hype burst, but oversold RSI/Stochastic and insider buys hint at rebound. Macro beverage drag keeps bears hungry, despite crypto buzz.

👁 Sentiment & Social Pulse

• X Chatter: Bears gloat: “$YHC from $11 to $2.42—told you pump-dump!” (@BearMarketBob, 80 likes, July 17). Bulls counter: “Dip buy at $2.42, crypto pivot alive” (@CryptoGemHunter, 150 likes). Sentiment 45% bullish, down from 70% pre-drop.

• Reddit: r/pennystocks threads call it "lawsuit rug pull" (200 upvotes on “YHC -77%, short win?”), but r/investing warns of losses (150 upvotes). r/wallstreetbets mocks “crypto booze flop” (100 upvotes).

• StockTwits: 50% bullish, posts on “$2.42 bottom, rebound to $5” (@oldarmy1, 50 likes). Bear posts flag losses (60 likes).

• Analyst Sentiment: No ratings; Stockinvest.us predicts $1.00–$1.50 in 3 months, citing valuation. Average target N/A, but P/E negative raises flags.

• News: Lawsuit and pivot dominate, with focus on breach claims. Montauk rum and Ontario orders add positive spin, but losses overshadow.

  
  

🎯 Updated Trading Playbook

• 🔻 Short-Fade Play (Bear Bet): Short at $4.50–$4.80, near resistance – sell when it hits these ceilings.

• Stop Loss: Above $5.00—breaks psych level – bail if it goes above here.

• Targets:

  • T1: $2.39 (recent low) – first floor.

  • T2: $1.13 (52-week low).

  • T3: $1.00 if losses widen – aim for these floors.

    
    

• Why It Works: Bearish MACD + lawsuit + macro drag = fade potential – trend's down, lawsuit killed buzz.

  
  

• 🔄 Pullback Add-On: Break below $2.39 with volume (>5M shares) – price drops under key level with lots of trading.

• Action: Add 50% to position, move stop to $2.50 – pile on, adjust safety net.

• Target: $1.13–$1.00 if Q2 misses.

  
  

• 🟢 Long Hedge (Risk Takers): Buy at $2.39–$2.42, near current or RSI <30 dip – scoop up when it's cheap or oversold.

• Stop Loss: Below $2.00—breaks psych level – bail if it falls under this.

• Targets: $4.50 (20-day SMA), $4.80 (50-day SMA), $6.00 (psych level) – aim for these ladders up.

  
  

⚠️ Risk Check

• Squeeze Danger: Micro-float (45.5M) and high volatility (beta 2.8) mean shorts could get torched if lawsuit resolves or volume surges (>5M) – low shares available, squeeze easy.

• Pivot Upside: Crypto mining with Bitmain could fuel hype if Q4 revenue beats – big growth play.

• Macro Beverage Drag: Inflation (3.2% CPI June) and consumer squeeze hit booze sales – broader pain hits hard.

• Retail Frenzy: X trends (#YHCPump) and Reddit hype could drive another leg up – crowd goes wild.

  
  

🖤 The Stonks After Dark Verdict

$YHC’s a booze e-commerce underdog with crypto pivot sparking a 171% pump before crashing 77%, but net margins -926.78% on -$22.72M loss, FCF -$568.12K, and revenue growth 458% on tiny $2.45M ttm spell trouble. Valuation P/S 0.53 (below average 2x, e.g., CELH 10x, MNST 8x, EAST 0.5x), but negative EV/EBITDA lags KO (20x) in a flat market. Social hype’s moderate, but post-spike downtrend and bearish MACD scream fade. Short at $4.50–$4.80, stop at $5.00, and aim for $2.39–$1.00. Add below $2.39 if volume confirms. Risk-takers buy dips at $2.39–$2.42 for $4.50–$6.00. Q4 revenue and lawsuit are pivotal—fade the weakness, but don’t get sliced by a rebound.